Just how deep is Flash player penetration anyway?

Asks PCPro's Tom Arah. It was about time somebody asked this question. Says Arah:

"...The first of these reveals that the total number of PCs is based on a forecast made two years ago – an age in internet time. Already then the margin of error on numbers at least is enormous... The second reveals that the figure is based on devices capable of reading Flash player 7 content. To be fair to Adobe they do give the penetration stats for different player releases and thanks to auto-updating the figure for the latest Flash player 10 is already around 55%... The third note is the most significant:
“Total Player penetration is a calculation of the total number of PCs connected to the internet, multiplied by the weighted percentage of worldwide penetration from the Millward Brown study. This is an assumption made by Adobe.”
On top of which the underlying numbers on which such a major claim are built seem tiny with an apparent total survey sample size of 4,600 ie around 0.0005% of the suggested 956,000,000 total (and then weighted according to the CIA World Factbook!)..."

I remember the time when Flash 4 was around, when penetration rates climbed very slowly; then, it must have been the transitional period of Flash 4 to 5 (or 5 to 6, I'm not entirely sure here), the figures jumped to around 99% from one month to another, with each new player version consistently starting out at above 50-60 percent of penetration. And that was that. I ever doubted these figures from that moment on. Now, please don't get me wrong -- Flash is totally ubiquitious, and my own work heavily depends on it. I just kept wondering about the real penetration figures all along.

With the stated 5% margin of error, Adobe has already reached a whopping 104 percent of market penetration, now that is something...



Wie weit verbreitet ist Flash wirklich?
Das fragt Tom Arah bei PCPro. Es war wirklich an der Zeit, daß jemand diese Frage stellt:

"...The first of these reveals that the total number of PCs is based on a forecast made two years ago – an age in internet time. Already then the margin of error on numbers at least is enormous... The second reveals that the figure is based on devices capable of reading Flash player 7 content. To be fair to Adobe they do give the penetration stats for different player releases and thanks to auto-updating the figure for the latest Flash player 10 is already around 55%... The third note is the most significant:
“Total Player penetration is a calculation of the total number of PCs connected to the internet, multiplied by the weighted percentage of worldwide penetration from the Millward Brown study. This is an assumption made by Adobe.”
On top of which the underlying numbers on which such a major claim are built seem tiny with an apparent total survey sample size of 4,600 ie around 0.0005% of the suggested 956,000,000 total (and then weighted according to the CIA World Factbook!)..."

Ich erinnere die Zeit, als Flash 4 aktuell war, und die Nutzerzahlen von Flash sehr langsam anstiegen. Während der Übergangsperiode von der 4er- zur 5er-Version (oder von 5 zu 6, ich bin mir hier nicht ganz sicher), stiegen die Zahlen innerhalb weniger Monate sprunghaft auf 99 Prozent an. Seitdem stiegen neue Flash-Versionen nach ihrer Veröffentlichung meistens bei über 50-60 Prozent Marktanteil ein. Dieses Muster hat sich innerhalb der letzten 5 Jahre nicht verändert -- ich habe mich seitdem immer gefragt, ob man diesen Werten trauen darf und wie hoch der Marktanteil von Flash wirklich ist. Aber bitte, um Mißverständnissen vorzubeugen: Flash ist allgegenwertig, das möchte ich nicht bestreiten -- der Großteil meiner eigenen Arbeit beruht auf immerhin auf Flash.

Mit der angegeben 5 prozentigen Fehlerspanne hat Adobe bereits eine Marktdurchdringung von satten 104 Prozent erreicht, das ist doch schon mal was...

Via Slashdot

:) <- Lutz